College applications have continued to spike since the pandemic, and there is no sign of a slowdown. This increased volume meant it was harder for colleges to tell which students were going to say yes, so they leveraged deferrals and waitlists to buy themselves time to fill potential remaining seats in late spring and summer. Some schools deferred and waitlisted students in such astronomic numbers that there is no way they’ll even scratch the surface of admission offers to those non-decisions. The yield challenge and the need to meet specific institutional goals meant more students were also denied from schools they might have been admitted to in the not-so-distant past. Compounding the situation is that some schools admitted fewer students due to housing crunches resulting from previous years’ over-enrollment.
This year, we heard countless stories from families and colleagues about strong students who were denied to many schools on their overly selective lists. Many private schools filled half (or more) of their class through binding early decision, leaving fewer spaces than ever for regular decision applicants. With increased applications, it is harder to stand out. This is not to say strong students were not rewarded in the admission process - they often were; however, having a balanced list is more important than ever.
It’s important to recognize that every student who applies to a 20% acceptance rate school doesn’t have a 20% chance of being admitted. That holds true for less competitive schools as well. Just because a school admits 70% of its applicants does not mean every student has a 70% chance of being admitted. With vastly increased application numbers at traditional “safety” schools, we can no longer be as confident a school is a sure bet. It’s also essential to look at recent admission trends and updated admitted student profiles because those statistics have changed dramatically in the past two years, and most data found on the web is outdated.
As college advisors, we bear the challenge of supporting our students’ dreams while managing expectations. The college admissions landscape has made that challenge more pronounced with application volume, test-optional admissions, and increased emphasis on institutional priorities. Our first priority as advisors is to set our students up for success in terms of results and fit. So, as we navigate the fine line between managing expectations and buttressing dreams, we turn to recent admission trends and how best to respond to ensure better outcomes.
Following are some trends we noticed at MCC, many of which were echoed by colleagues, as well as the actions we recommend students in the class of 2024 take as they finalize college lists and develop applications and essays.
TREND: Top students not being admitted to selective schools. Just being qualified is no longer enough to get admitted.
RESPONSE: Schools’ institutional priorities drive their decision-making. Top students are denied not because they aren’t qualified but because they don't meet the institutional need to fill specific mystery slots. For example, a selective college in the northeast reported a 9.5% acceptance rate in 2023. However, this acceptance rate can be much lower when you account for institutional priorities. Of the 3230 admitted students, when you account for the need to admit students from underrepresented groups, achieve geographic diversity (admitted students represented all 50 states and numerous countries), fill seats in 3 different colleges and various majors within the university, admit athletic recruits, appease donors and legacies, and represent specific talents in music or the arts, you can imagine how low the admit rate actually is for a student who doesn’t fill one of those needs.
It’s increasingly important to have safety and target schools, especially for top students, and show interest in those schools. Even schools you consider as safeties or targets, especially private ones, defer, waitlist, or even deny overly or highly qualified students as a way to manage their yield - they want to offer admission spots to students they predict will accept. So what should you do? Show interest! Make them feel they’re your favorite. Visit in person if possible! Interview if given the chance. Don’t view your safety or target as a shoo-in. Being qualified isn’t always enough to gain admission.
TREND: More unpredictability/selectivity in state schools where application volume is skyrocketing.
RESPONSE: Be open to adding 2-3 less selective colleges in a broader geographic region, particularly if you apply test optional. Pay attention to test-optional policies and know that large universities that require scores rely heavily on them in evaluating applicants. Look up the last year’s admitted class profile and be realistic about your chances if your scores or grades don’t fall within the published range.
Headlines and class of 2027 admission statistics at three popular universities in the south
TREND: Greater use of non-decisions including deferrals and waitlists
RESPONSE: Rather than applying to a longer list of similar colleges (i.e. 12 East Coast liberal arts colleges), focus on a few and devote time to learn about them, demonstrate interest, connect with admissions, and visit if possible. Prove your fit through your essays and other communication. 5 solid applications will yield better results than 10 random applications to colleges that evaluate students holistically.
TREND: Increased offers of acceptance with provisional terms. This is another response to unpredictability and provides colleges a way to fill seats vacated by transfer students and to admit borderline students without having to report their GPA/test scores for the rankings. More colleges offered conditional admission provided students agreed to spring enrollment, structured/sponsored Gap year or semester programs, or fee-based summer programs.
RESPONSE: While these offers aren’t necessarily what students hope for, we recommend keeping an open mind. Provided the terms of enrollment don’t impose a cost barrier, they can offer a unique experience as well as a path to a college you want to attend.