Reflecting on 2024 Admission Trends
Each spring, after most decisions are in, the Midwest College Consulting team devotes significant time to reflecting on the application cycle and how emerging and previous admission trends impacted the process and our students’ results. Understanding how events and movements in college admissions alter the landscape and impact outcomes is critical to college advising. Ours is not a formulaic approach; along with our experience, we rely on industry developments to inform our highly individualized guidance for each student. As I sat down to summarize what we learned this season, I realized nearly everything I noticed boiled down to the business decisions colleges needed to make. Needing some separation from the project at hand, I came upon this quote from Leonard Sweet. Initially, I meant to use it as a message to graduating seniors. Upon further reflection, I realized it’s also meaningful to our work as college advisors. Nothing is passive about this job, entering college for the first time, or life.
“The future is not something we enter. The future is something we create.” -Leonard Sweet
At MCC, we take enormous pride in our students’ successes. We recognize the hard work they commit throughout high school and the effort and emotion they invest in the application process. We also know most of our students will create their own path in college that leads to their success. If you are a senior accepted to your dream school with a dauntingly low acceptance rate, or you chose a less selective college because it meets your needs in whichever ways are meaningful to you and your family, we congratulate you.
As college advisors, we bear the challenge of supporting our students’ dreams while managing expectations. The college admissions landscape has made that challenge more pronounced. So, as we navigate this fine line, we turn to recent admission trends to reflect on the college admissions experience for the Class of 2024 and how best to respond as we help the Class of 2025 finalize college lists and develop applications and essays.
1. Application Volume Surges (Again)
College applications have soared, and there is no sign of a slowdown. Common App’s volume increased by another 7% this year, contributing to the staggering 65% increase since the pandemic. Year-over-year growth occurred in both the number of colleges applied to per applicant and the number of applicants using the platform. So, what’s the impact of these whopping statistics? It’s more difficult to be admitted to popular schools, for one. The vast number of applications also makes it more difficult for colleges to manage their business. And that’s what colleges are, after all–businesses.
2. It’s Not Personal, It’s Business
This increased volume made it difficult for colleges to tell which students would say yes, and managing enrollment is critical to their bottom line. Colleges must protect their yield (percent of admitted students who end up attending) and hence lean on sophisticated predictive analytics to forecast who will enroll. They want each dorm bed to be occupied (but not over-occupied!). They need the right number of students studying various majors (not too many or too few), so tenured professors have full classrooms (but not too full). They also need enough full-paying students to meet tuition revenue benchmarks. All of this is a balancing act. Schools’ institutional priorities drive their decision-making. Top students are sometimes denied because they don't meet the institutional need to fill specific mystery slots. Even if you are a well-qualified applicant, your admission chances may be much lower than the reported acceptance rate when you account for institutional priorities such as geographic location, major and colleges within the university, athletic recruiting, gender, or specific talents.
3. Deferrals and Waitlists Buy Colleges Time
Wild percentage increases in applications create unpredictability, so colleges leveraged deferrals and waitlists to see if enough admitted students would say yes so they could then fill potential remaining seats in late spring and summer. The colleges’ yield challenge (is this well-qualified student really going to attend?) and the need to meet specific institutional goals meant more students whose profiles were well within or even exceeded the colleges’ admittance criteria were deferred. Sometimes, colleges genuinely defer students to reevaluate their applications alongside the regular decision pool; however, deferrals and waitlists are also used to gauge the applicant’s interest, appease legacies and donors, and allow colleges to handpick students who fill institutional priorities (think underrepresented majors, unrepresented states, specific talents, first-generation, full pay, and more). While we occasionally witness students accepted from deferrals and, in rarer cases, waitlists, the statistics paint a picture that gives pause.
*University of Michigan Waitlist STATISTICS
2023: 21,000+ offered spot on waitlist. 15,000 accepted. 77 admitted. Waitlist acceptance rate: 0.51%
2022: 17,805 offered spot on waitlist. 13,000 accepted. 68 admitted. Waitlist acceptance rate: 0.52%
*Source: Common Data Set
CONSIDER OUR ADVICE: Rather than applying to a longer list of similar colleges (e.g., 12 East Coast liberal arts colleges), focus on a few and devote time to learning about them, demonstrating interest, connecting with admissions, and visiting if possible. Prove your fit through your essays and other communication. Five solid applications will yield better results than ten random applications to colleges that evaluate students holistically.
4. Being Qualified or Even Overqualified Isn’t Always Enough
Many private schools filled half (or more) of their class through binding early decision, leaving fewer spaces than ever for regular decision applicants. Even early-round statistics have plummeted (see chart below). With increased applications, it is harder to stand out. This is not to say strong students were not rewarded in the admission process - they often were; however, having a balanced list is more important than ever.
It’s also important to recognize that every student who applies to a 20% acceptance rate school doesn’t have a 20% chance of being admitted. That holds for applicants to higher acceptance rate schools as well. With vastly increased application numbers at traditional “safety” schools, we can no longer be as confident that a school is a sure bet. It’s also essential to look at recent admission trends and updated admitted student profiles because those statistics have changed dramatically in the past two years.
2023-2024 ACCEPTANCE RATES FROM THREE ELITE SCHOOLS
Vanderbilt Early Decision Acceptance Rate: 15.2% — Regular Decision Acceptance Rate 3.7%
Duke Early Decision Acceptance Rate: 12.9% — Regular Decision Acceptance Rate 4.1%
Yale Restrictive Early Action Acceptance Rate: 9.02% — Regular Decision Acceptance Rate: 2.75%
CONSIDER OUR ADVICE: It’s increasingly important to have safety and target schools, especially for top students, and show interest in those schools. Even schools you consider as safeties or targets defer, waitlist, or even deny overly or highly qualified students as a way to manage their yield. So what should you do? Show interest! Make them feel they’re your favorite. Visit in person if possible! Interview if given the chance. Don’t view your safety or target as a shoo-in. Being qualified isn’t always enough to gain admission.
5. Skyrocketing Application Volume at State Schools = Less Predictable Outcomes
While the meteoric drops in admit rates at elite colleges may claim the headlines, highly competitive schools aren’t the only ones impacted by this growth. Even state flagships formerly considered less selective have seen vast increases in their applicant pools and strikingly low acceptance rates as a result. Requiring test scores doesn’t appear to sway applicant volume negatively. Florida State University saw a 28% increase in applications, with students admitted from the 76k applicants averaging a mean ACT score of 31. Being one of the first institutions to return to requiring test scores did not hinder the University of Tennessee’s growth either. The Knoxville-based flagship received almost 11k more applications than last year, resulting in an even lower acceptance than previously could have been imagined. Tennessee’s 23.7% out-of-state admit rate has propelled it from a long-standing safety school among some of its traditionally more selective neighbors to a school that only students with top statistics are admitted.
CONSIDER OUR ADVICE: Be open to adding 2-3 less selective colleges in a broader geographic region, particularly if you apply test-optional. Pay attention to testing policies, and know that large universities that require scores rely heavily on them in evaluating applicants. Straight A’s may not compensate for test scores that fall on the low end or below the range for admitted students. Similarly, a high test score does not compensate for a lower GPA than other applicants. Look up last year’s admitted class profile and be realistic about your chances if your scores or grades fall outside the published range.
6. Alternate Pathways to Admission Rise in Popularity
Northeastern University, Clemson University, University of Florida, Florida State University, College of Charleston, University of Colorado, Case Western University, Tulane University, University of Miami, Penn State University, Georgia Tech. What do these colleges have in common? They offer some students acceptance with provisional terms. This year, we saw more acceptances conditional on students participating in first-semester or year-long study abroad programs, first-year online learning, summer and spring start programs, bridge programs through community college, and guaranteed transfer offers. Alternate pathways to admission are another response to enrollment unpredictability, providing colleges a way to fill seats vacated by transfer students, students studying abroad, and students who graduated early, and to admit borderline students without having to publish their GPA/test scores or report them to ranking publications.
CONSIDER OUR ADVICE: While these nontraditional offers aren’t necessarily what students hope for, we recommend keeping an open mind. Provided the terms of enrollment don’t impose a cost barrier, they can offer a unique experience and a path to a college you want to attend.